PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, First Quarter 2021

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2016 - 2021

On June 17, 2021 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the first quarter of 2021. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 160,536 as of April 1, 2021, reaching the goal of 160,000 set in the Population Action Plan of 2017 well ahead of the December 2022 target. This represents a yearly increase of 1,287 persons or a 0.8 per cent annual growth rate. This is the third highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut and Yukon, which were both at 1.5 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since January 1, 2019 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

  Canada Prince Edward Island
Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%)
Jan. 1, 2019 37,324,239 0.2 155,244 0.1
Apr. 1, 2019 37,417,155 0.2 155,833 0.4
Jul. 1, 2019 37,593,384 0.5 157,262 0.9
Oct. 1, 2019 37,802,043 0.6 158,334 0.7
Jan. 1, 2020 37,899,277 0.3 158,629 0.2
Apr. 1, 2020 37,979,854 0.2 159,249 0.4
Jul. 1, 2020 38,005,238 0.1 159,625 0.2
Oct. 1, 2020 38,008,005 0.0 159,747 0.1
Jan. 1, 2021 38,048,738 0.1 159,819 0.0
Apr. 1, 2021 38,131,104 0.2 160,536 0.4

Newfoundland and Labrador and Northwest Territories were the only jurisdictions to see year-over-year population declines (April 1, 2021 compared to April 1, 2020). Population estimates for April 1, 2020 and 2021 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates and level change for the twelve-month period ending March 31, 2021 are also included.

 

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, APRIL 1, 2020, 2021 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

  Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2021 Growth Level
CAN 37,979,854 38,131,104 0.4% 151,250
NL 522,994 520,286 -0.5% -2,708
PEI 159,249 160,536 0.8% 1,287
NS 977,043 982,326 0.5% 5,283
NB 781,024 783,721 0.3% 2,697
QC 8,572,054 8,585,523 0.2% 13,469
ON 14,723,497 14,789,778 0.5% 66,281
MB 1,378,818 1,382,904 0.3% 4,086
SK 1,179,618 1,179,906 0.0% 288
AB 4,417,006 4,444,277 0.6% 27,271
BC 5,142,404 5,174,724 0.6% 32,320
YK 41,980 42,596 1.5% 616
NWT 45,201 44,991 -0.5% -210
NU 38,966 39,536 1.5% 570

 

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021 was 717 people.

Natural Increase

There were 317 births and 358 deaths on Prince Edward Island from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of minus 41.

International Migration

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the last three quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the fourth quarter of 2020 remained steady compared to the previous quarter but was down 42.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

During first quarter 2021, 368 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 258 the previous quarter. Immigration remains down on a year-over-year basis, falling 25.5 per cent as compared to the first quarter of 2020. At a rate of 2.3 per thousand , the province had the third highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, behind Manitoba at 2.5 per thousand and Ontario at 2.4 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.9 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 685 persons during the first quarter of 2021. This consisted of the 368 international immigrants, 327 non-permanent residents (net), and 1 returning Canadian entering the province, while 8 international emigrants and 3 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12-month period (April 2020 to March 2021) was 1,572. This compares to 3,485 over the previous 12-month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was +327 for the first quarter of 2021, following +37 for the fourth quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 1,009 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI during the first quarter of 2021, while 936 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial gain of 73. This compares to a net gain of 234 persons over the same period in 2020. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and Nova Scotia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. 31.1 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

 

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JANUARY 1, 2021 TO MARCH 31, 2021

  DESTINATION
ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
N.L. 0 44 173 14 39 470 9 32 385 91 0 0 0
P.E.I. 0 0 181 203 31 294 0 0 130 97 0 0 0
N.S. 174 104 0 587 227 665 98 57 450 438 0 18 12
N.B. 26 72 423 0 446 867 47 55 301 61 5 0 25
Que. 40 0 170 431 0 3,574 37 44 465 1,094 0 0 42
Ont. 641 639 2,210 1,248 4,847 0 861 1,117 4,366 5,454 134 74 35
Man. 0 0 60 62 212 1,268 0 483 1,222 1,276 18 61 14
Sask. 45 5 83 19 75 1,776 298 0 2,480 1,306 26 0 9
Alta. 306 135 687 750 660 4,186 552 1,712 0 8,073 57 132 12
B.C. 156 10 550 219 706 2,724 372 442 3,690 0 113 56 0
Y.T. 5 0 28 0 0 42 8 7 29 57 0 23 0
N.W.T. 13 0 63 0 8 66 16 16 360 94 30 0 0
Nvt. 0 0 72 0 10 65 12 0 0 10 0 45 0

 

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH OCTOBER 1 2018 – APRIL 1 2021

Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths (+) Immigrants (+) Other International* (+) Interprovincial In-Migration (-) Interprovincial Out-Migration
Oct 1, 2018 155,129 328 335 437 -338 533 510
Jan 1, 2019 155,244 299 392 544 5 793 660
Apr 1, 2019 155,833 326 349 601 432 1,510 1,091
Jul 1, 2019 157,262 378 323 855 706 604 1,148
Oct 1, 2019 158,334 323 343 447 20 726 878
Jan 1, 2020 158,629 312 350 494 -70 955 721
Apr 1, 2020 159,249 340 351 286 101 1,274 1,274
Jul 1, 2020 159,625 393 305 255 -45 597 773
Oct 1, 2020 159,747 331 334 258 32 496 711
Jan 1, 2021 159,819 317 358 368 317 1,009 936
Apr 1, 2021 160,536  

 

 

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates

 

COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March. In mid-March, the Canada/U.S. border was closed and non-essential inter-provincial travel restrictions were put in place, restricting both international and inter-provincial migration. The impact of these restrictions was initially evident in the second quarter 2020 estimates (April 1 to June 30) and continued to have an effect on international and interprovincial migration into the third and fourth quarters.

Nationally during the year, the population increased by 149,461 (+0.4%) to reach 38,048,738 on January 1, 2021, about one-quarter of the growth seen in 2019 (575,038 or +1.5%). This was the lowest annual growth since 1945 (in number) and 1916 (in percent), both periods in which Canada was at war.

In 2020, deaths in Canada surpassed 300,000 (309,893) for the first time in Canadian history. The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported that 15,651 or 5.1% of deaths in 2020 were caused by COVID-19, meaning that the pandemic is estimated to have been the cause of about 1 in 20 deaths in Canada.

The largest impact Covid-19 has had on population growth has been to migration. International migration has accounted for more than three-quarters of the total population growth since 2016, reaching 85.7% in 2019. Following border and travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, this percentage fell to 58.0%. Population increase through international migration in 2020 was over 80% lower than it was in 2019.

Interprovincial migration also slowed significantly during the third quarter. There were 8.8% fewer people moving from one province or territory to another in 2020 than there were a year earlier.
Statistics Canada adjusted some components to take into account the effect of the global pandemic on the population of Canada. A detailed explanation can be found in the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 
Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.
NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.
Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

Published date: 
June 17, 2021
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