PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, Third Quarter 2018

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2013 - 2018

On December 20, 2018 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the third quarter of 2018. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 154,750 as of October 1, 2018. This represents a yearly increase of 3,273 persons or a 2.2 per cent annual growth rate. This is the highest year over year growth rate among provinces, ahead of Ontario at 1.8 percent, and compares to a rate of 1.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since July 1, 2016 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

  Canada Prince Edward Island
Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%)
Jul 1, 2016 36,109,487 0.4 146,969 0.8
Oct 1, 2016 36,256,107 0.4 147,948 0.7
Jan 1, 2017 36,309,132 0.1 148,202 0.2
Apr 1, 2017 36,394,788 0.2 148,946 0.5
Jul 1, 2017 36,540,268 0.4 150,566 1.1
Oct 1, 2017 36,712,658 0.5 151,477 0.6
Jan 1, 2018 36,786,021 0.2 151,535 0.0
Apr 1, 2018 36,890,169 0.3 152,009 0.3
Jul 1, 2018 37,058,856 0.5 153,244 0.8
Oct 1, 2018 37,242,571 0.5 154,750 1.0

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (October 1, 2018 compared to October 1, 2017). Population estimates for October 1, 2017 and 2018 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending September 30, 2018 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, OCTOBER 1, 2017, 2018 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

  1-Oct-17 1-Oct-18 Growth
CAN 36,712,658 37,242,571 1.4%
NL 528,463 525,073 -0.6%
PEI 151,477 154,750 2.2%
NS 954,374 964,693 1.1%
NB 768,212 772,238 0.5%
QC 8,329,664 8,421,698 1.1%
ON 14,153,806 14,411,424 1.8%
MB 1,340,776 1,356,836 1.2%
SK 1,155,034 1,165,903 0.9%
AB 4,262,642 4,330,206 1.6%
BC 4,945,559 5,016,322 1.4%
Terr. 122,651 123,428 0.6%

Components of Growth

Natural Increase

There were 411 births and 299 deaths on Prince Edward Island from July 1, 2018 to September 30, 2018, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of 112.

 

International Migration

International immigration increased by 30.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter and up 8.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2017. During the third quarter, 685 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 525 the previous quarter. At a rate of 4.4 per thousand[1], the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country. The immigration rate for Canada was 2.2 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 1,529 persons during the third quarter of 2018. This consisted of the 685 international immigrants, 14 returning Canadians, and 880 non-permanent residents (net) entering the province, while 38 international emigrants and 12 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the last 12 month period (October 2017 to September 2018) was 3,340. This compares to 2,888 over the previous 12 month period.Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)[2] was 880 for the third quarter of 2018, following 483 for the second quarter of 2018. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

 

 

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 1,097 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the third quarter of 2018, while 1,232 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 135 persons. This compares to a net loss of -259 persons over the same period in 2017. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by British Columbia and Nova Scotia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta, and Nunavut all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the third quarter of 2018. 38.2 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JULY 1, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2018

  DESTINATION
ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
N.L. 0 28 345 100 133 774 10 65 842 116 18 6 16
P.E.I. 58 0 44 106 52 697 0 12 191 72 0 0 0
N.S. 144 149 0 475 523 1,506 49 28 725 271 6 68 0
N.B. 74 99 656 0 636 1,459 52 62 630 236 0 0 0
Que. 39 9 187 457 0 6,349 110 99 874 990 47 39 34
Ont. 495 441 1,748 979 3,748 0 858 554 4,370 3,734 23 71 44
Man. 15 13 90 48 227 2,337 0 467 1,231 1,206 12 23 41
Sask. 21 16 106 21 173 1,838 388 0 2,985 1,077 0 27 28
Alta. 406 121 711 565 939 4,816 599 1,492 0 5,526 41 124 19
B.C. 80 192 663 324 1,006 4,527 648 633 6,397 0 137 76 13
Y.T. 0 16 18 0 26 119 0 50 157 127 0 17 40
N.W.T. 18 9 43 15 31 189 0 36 162 120 6 0 25
Nvt. 0 4 33 11 27 91 13 0 17 4 21 3 0
N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
IN 1,350 1,097 4,644 3,101 7,521 24,702 2,727 3,498 18,581 13,479 311 454 260
OUT 2,453 1,232 3,944 3,904 9,234 17,065 5,710 6,680 15,359 14,696 570 654 224
NET -1,103 -135 700 -803 -1,713 7,637 -2,983 -3,182 3,222 -1,217 -259 -200 36

 

Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from April 1, 2016 to October 1, 2018 can be seen in table 4.

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH APRIL 1 2016 – OCTOBER 1 2018

Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths (+) Immigrants (+) Other International* (+) Interprovincial In-Migration (-) Interprovincial Out-Migration
Apr 1, 2016 145,784 358 263 751 406 1,145 1,153
Jul 1, 2016 146,969 391 279 695 372 724 924
Oct 1, 2016 147,948 317 313 308 -154 427 331
Jan 1, 2017 148,202 340 299 608 -39 867 733
Apr 1, 2017 148,946 365 268 652 457 1,426 1,012
Jul 1, 2017 150,566 399 285 632 424 779 1,038
Oct 1, 2017 151,477 324 320 456 -189 569 782
Jan 1, 2018 151,535 346 305 489 70 780 906
Apr 1, 2018 152,009 371 273 525 460 1,730 1,578
Jul 1, 2018 153,244 411 299 685 844 1,097 1,232
Oct 1, 2018 154,750  

 

DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, JULY 1, 2018 – SEPTEMBER 30, 2018

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Note: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census. Exceptionally this year, annual demographic estimates (from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018) for the population by sex and age group will be released in January 2019.

 

Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

 

 


[1] Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.

[2] NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.

 

 

 

 

Published date: 
December 20, 2018
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