PEI Population Report Quarterly
Population Report, First Quarter 2021
DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2016 - 2021
On June 17, 2021 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the first quarter of 2021. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 160,536 as of April 1, 2021, reaching the goal of 160,000 set in the Population Action Plan of 2017 well ahead of the December 2022 target. This represents a yearly increase of 1,287 persons or a 0.8 per cent annual growth rate. This is the third highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut and Yukon, which were both at 1.5 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.
The quarterly estimates since January 1, 2019 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.
TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY
|Canada||Prince Edward Island|
|Quarter||Population||Growth rate (%)||Population||Growth rate (%)|
|Jan. 1, 2019||37,324,239||0.2||155,244||0.1|
|Apr. 1, 2019||37,417,155||0.2||155,833||0.4|
|Jul. 1, 2019||37,593,384||0.5||157,262||0.9|
|Oct. 1, 2019||37,802,043||0.6||158,334||0.7|
|Jan. 1, 2020||37,899,277||0.3||158,629||0.2|
|Apr. 1, 2020||37,979,854||0.2||159,249||0.4|
|Jul. 1, 2020||38,005,238||0.1||159,625||0.2|
|Oct. 1, 2020||38,008,005||0.0||159,747||0.1|
|Jan. 1, 2021||38,048,738||0.1||159,819||0.0|
|Apr. 1, 2021||38,131,104||0.2||160,536||0.4|
Newfoundland and Labrador and Northwest Territories were the only jurisdictions to see year-over-year population declines (April 1, 2021 compared to April 1, 2020). Population estimates for April 1, 2020 and 2021 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates and level change for the twelve-month period ending March 31, 2021 are also included.
TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, APRIL 1, 2020, 2021 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
|Apr 1, 2020||Apr 1, 2021||Growth||Level|
Components of Growth
The total increase in PEI’s population from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021 was 717 people.
There were 317 births and 358 deaths on Prince Edward Island from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of minus 41.
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the last three quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the fourth quarter of 2020 remained steady compared to the previous quarter but was down 42.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.
During first quarter 2021, 368 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 258 the previous quarter. Immigration remains down on a year-over-year basis, falling 25.5 per cent as compared to the first quarter of 2020. At a rate of 2.3 per thousand , the province had the third highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, behind Manitoba at 2.5 per thousand and Ontario at 2.4 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.9 per thousand.
Net international migration was estimated to be 685 persons during the first quarter of 2021. This consisted of the 368 international immigrants, 327 non-permanent residents (net), and 1 returning Canadian entering the province, while 8 international emigrants and 3 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12-month period (April 2020 to March 2021) was 1,572. This compares to 3,485 over the previous 12-month period.
Net non-permanent residents (NPRs) was +327 for the first quarter of 2021, following +37 for the fourth quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.
TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JANUARY 1, 2021 TO MARCH 31, 2021
TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH OCTOBER 1 2018 – APRIL 1 2021
|Quarter||Population||(+) Births||(-) Deaths||(+) Immigrants||(+) Other International*||(+) Interprovincial In-Migration||(-) Interprovincial Out-Migration|
|Oct 1, 2018||155,129||328||335||437||-338||533||510|
|Jan 1, 2019||155,244||299||392||544||5||793||660|
|Apr 1, 2019||155,833||326||349||601||432||1,510||1,091|
|Jul 1, 2019||157,262||378||323||855||706||604||1,148|
|Oct 1, 2019||158,334||323||343||447||20||726||878|
|Jan 1, 2020||158,629||312||350||494||-70||955||721|
|Apr 1, 2020||159,249||340||351||286||101||1,274||1,274|
|Jul 1, 2020||159,625||393||305||255||-45||597||773|
|Oct 1, 2020||159,747||331||334||258||32||496||711|
|Jan 1, 2021||159,819||317||358||368||317||1,009||936|
|Apr 1, 2021||160,536|
Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates
Nationally during the year, the population increased by 149,461 (+0.4%) to reach 38,048,738 on January 1, 2021, about one-quarter of the growth seen in 2019 (575,038 or +1.5%). This was the lowest annual growth since 1945 (in number) and 1916 (in percent), both periods in which Canada was at war.
In 2020, deaths in Canada surpassed 300,000 (309,893) for the first time in Canadian history. The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported that 15,651 or 5.1% of deaths in 2020 were caused by COVID-19, meaning that the pandemic is estimated to have been the cause of about 1 in 20 deaths in Canada.
The largest impact Covid-19 has had on population growth has been to migration. International migration has accounted for more than three-quarters of the total population growth since 2016, reaching 85.7% in 2019. Following border and travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, this percentage fell to 58.0%. Population increase through international migration in 2020 was over 80% lower than it was in 2019.
Interprovincial migration also slowed significantly during the third quarter. There were 8.8% fewer people moving from one province or territory to another in 2020 than there were a year earlier.
Related downloads for this release:
PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)
Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.
Source: Statistics Canada
Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)
Prepared by PEI Statistics Bureau