PEI Population Report Quarterly
Population Report, Third Quarter 2020
DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2020
On December 17, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the third quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 159,713 as of October 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 1,379 persons or a 0.9 per cent annual growth rate. This is the fourth highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut at 1.7 per cent, Yukon at 1.2 per cent, and Alberta at 1.0 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.5 per cent for Canada as a whole.
The quarterly estimates since July 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.
TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY
|Canada||Prince Edward Island|
|Quarter||Population||Growth rate (%)||Population||Growth rate (%)|
|Jul. 1, 2018||37,065,178||0.5||153,396||0.9|
|Oct. 1, 2018||37,249,240||0.5||155,129||1.1|
|Jan. 1, 2019||37,324,239||0.2||155,244||0.1|
|Apr. 1, 2019||37,417,155||0.2||155,833||0.4|
|Jul. 1, 2019||37,593,384||0.5||157,262||0.9|
|Oct. 1, 2019||37,802,043||0.6||158,334||0.7|
|Jan. 1, 2020||37,899,277||0.3||158,629||0.2|
|Apr. 1, 2020||37,979,854||0.2||159,249||0.4|
|Jul. 1, 2020||38,005,238||0.1||159,625||0.2|
|Oct. 1, 2020||38,008,005||0.0||159,713||0.1|
Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (October 1, 2020 compared to October 1, 2019). Population estimates for October 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending September 30, 2020 are also included.
TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, OCTOBER 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
|Oct 1, 2019||Oct 1, 2020||Growth||Level|
Components of Growth
The total increase in PEI’s population from July 1, 2020 to October 1, 2020 was 88 people.
There were 393 births and 305 deaths on Prince Edward Island from July 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of 88.
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the second and third quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the third quarter was down 70.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.
During the third quarter, 255 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 286 the previous quarter. At a rate of 1.6 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, along with Manitoba also at 1.6 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.1 per thousand.
Net international migration was estimated to be 210 persons during the third quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 255 international immigrants and 4 returning Canadians entering the province, while 3 international emigrant, 44 non-permanent residents (net) and 2 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12 month period (October 2019 to September 2020) was 1,488. This compares to 3,242 over the previous 12 month period.
Net non-permanent residents (NPRs) was -44 for the third quarter of 2020, following 101 for the second quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.
A total of 605 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the third quarter of 2020, while 815 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 210. This compares to a net loss of 544 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and British Columbia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the third quarter of 2020. 36.1 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.
TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JULY 1, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2020
TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH APRIL 1 2018 – OCTOBER 1 2020
|Quarter||Population||(+) Births||(-) Deaths||(+) Immigrants||(+) Other International*||(+) Interprovincial In-Migration||(-) Interprovincial Out-Migration|
|Apr 1, 2018||152,039||341||340||525||423||1,624||1,216|
|Jul 1, 2018||153,396||355||313||685||919||971||884|
|Oct 1, 2018||155,129||328||335||437||-338||533||510|
|Jan 1, 2019||155,244||299||392||544||5||793||660|
|Apr 1, 2019||155,833||326||349||601||432||1,510||1,091|
|Jul 1, 2019||157,262||378||323||855||706||604||1,148|
|Oct 1, 2019||158,334||323||343||447||20||726||878|
|Jan 1, 2020||158,629||312||350||494||-70||955||721|
|Apr 1, 2020||159,249||340||351||286||101||1,274||1,274|
|Jul 1, 2020||159,625||393||305||255||-45||605||815|
|Oct 1, 2020||159,713|
Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates
Nationally, population growth came to a halt in the third quarter of 2020, increasing by only 2,767 people. This was a lowest quarterly growth seen since comparable national data has been available (January 1946). Six provinces and two territories saw population declines during this period.
Deaths due to Covid-19 had little impact on the total population estimates. Out of the total 69,114 deaths recorded during the third quarter of 2020, 706 were due to Covid-19, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.
The largest impact Covid-19 has had on population growth has been to migration. Net international migration for the third quarter of 2020 was -27,143, only the second quarter this has been negative since 1971. The majority of this loss was due to a loss of 66,000 non-permanent residents, as international students who normally come to Canada during the third quarter were not able to do so due to border restrictions. All of Canada’s population growth during the third quarter of 2020 was due to natural increase.
Interprovincial migration also slowed significantly during the third quarter. 65,795 people moved to a new province during this period, down 21.0% from the same period in 2019 and the fewest number since comparable data has been available (1971).
Related downloads for this release:
PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)
Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.
Source: Statistics Canada
Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)
Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)
Prepared by PEI Statistics Bureau