PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, First Quarter 2020

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2019

On June 18, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the first quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 158,717 as of April 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 3,061 persons or a 2.0 per cent annual growth rate. This is the second highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, with Nunavut at 2.1 percent. This compares to a rate of 1.5 per cent for Canada as a whole. 

The quarterly estimates since January 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1. 
 

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

  Canada Prince Edward Island
Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%)
Jan. 1, 2018 36,788,832 0.2 151,648 0.1
Apr. 1, 2018 36,889,543 0.3 152,208 0.4
Jul. 1, 2018 37,057,765 0.5 153,584 0.9
Oct. 1, 2018 37,238,906 0.5 155,085 1.0
Jan. 1, 2019 37,311,904 0.2 155,111 0.0
Apr. 1, 2019 37,408,205 0.3 155,656 0.4
Jul. 1, 2019 37,589,262 0.5 156,947 0.8
Oct. 1, 2019 37,797,496 0.6 157,901 0.6
Jan. 1, 2020 37,894,799 0.3 158,158 0.2
Apr. 1, 2020 37,971,020 0.2 158,717 0.4

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (April 1, 2020 compared to April 1, 2019). Population estimates for April 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending March 31, 2020 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, APRIL 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

  Apr 1, 2019 Apr 1, 2020 Growth Level
CAN 37,408,205 37,971,020 1.5% 562,815
NL 522,818 520,437 -0.5% -2,381
PEI 155,656 158,717 2.0% 3,061
NS 966,709 978,274 1.2% 11,565
NB 773,887 780,890 0.9% 7,003
QC 8,447,609 8,552,362 1.2% 104,753
ON 14,484,242 14,745,040 1.8% 260,798
MB 1,364,400 1,379,121 1.1% 14,721
SK 1,171,027 1,181,987 0.9% 10,960
AB 4,350,901 4,428,247 1.8% 77,346
BC 5,046,780 5,120,184 1.5% 73,404
YK 40,601 41,293 1.7% 692
NWT 44,909 44,982 0.2% 73
NU 38,666 39,486 2.1% 820

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from January 1, 2020 to April 1, 2020 was 559 people.

Natural Increase

There were 370 births and 397 deaths on Prince Edward Island from January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of -27.

International Migration

International immigration increased by 10.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, however down 9.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. This was due to restrictions being put in place to enter the province at the end of the quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the first quarter, 494 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 447 the previous quarter. At a rate of 3.1 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.8 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 408 persons during the first quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 494 international immigrants and 11 returning Canadians entering the province, while and 74 non-permanent residents (net), 14 international emigrants and 9 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the last 12 month period (April 2019 to March 2020) was 3,449. This compares to 3,159 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was -74 for the first quarter of 2020, following 36 for the fourth quarter of 2019. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.
 

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 944 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the first quarter of 2020, while 766 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial gain of 178 persons. This compares to a net gain of 34 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia. PEI, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, and Nunavut all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the first quarter of 2020. 31.2 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Alberta.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JANUARY 1, 2020 TO MARCH 31, 2020

  DESTINATION
ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
N.L. .. 22 328 108 65 532 14 12 938 171 19 6 22
P.E.I. 59 .. 210 31 13 289 0 6 71 87 0 0 0
N.S. 263 190 .. 614 204 1,503 126 75 788 523 0 54 180
N.B. 48 138 562 .. 330 677 61 36 599 255 0 18 0
Que. 72 13 142 320 .. 3,562 91 78 563 639 16 10 0
Ont. 608 379 1,915 1,034 3,581 .. 996 703 5,140 4,478 156 135 331
Man. 9 4 139 66 226 1,507 .. 518 1,425 1,019 0 11 19
Sask. 53 17 153 122 202 1,492 640 .. 3,263 1,386 66 23 10
Alta. 452 78 749 585 688 3,979 699 1,926 .. 6,278 160 271 12
B.C. 101 86 434 310 515 3,123 456 724 5,807 .. 130 56 47
Y.T. 0 0 61 10 38 47 0 44 52 93 .. 38 0
N.W.T. 41 17 60 34 33 69 4 10 299 89 17 .. 7
Nvt. 46 0 59 22 23 169 12 0 55 18 10 7 ..
N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
IN 1,752 944 4,812 3,256 5,918 16,949 3,099 4,132 19,000 15,036 574 629 628
OUT 2,237 766 4,520 2,724 5,506 19,456 4,943 7,427 15,877 11,789 383 680 421
NET -485 178 292 532 412 -2,507 -1,844 -3,295 3,123 3,247 191 -51 207

Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from October 1, 2017 to April 1, 2020 can be seen in table 4.

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH OCTOBER 1 2017 – APRIL 1 2020

Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths (+) Immigrants (+) Other International* (+) Interprovincial In-Migration (-) Interprovincial Out-Migration
Oct 1, 2017 151,478 321 329 456 -160 505 623
Jan 1, 2018 151,648 342 381 489 116 689 695
Apr 1, 2018 152,208 357 325 525 411 1,624 1,216
Jul 1, 2018 153,584 350 329 685 871 1,096 1,172
Oct 1, 2018 155,085 329 340 437 -324 588 664
Jan 1, 2019 155,111 351 394 544 10 882 848
Apr 1, 2019 155,656 367 335 601 411 1,635 1,388
Jul 1, 2019 156,947 365 336 855 704 587 1,221
Oct 1, 2019 157,901 341 346 447 23 718 926
Jan 1, 2020 158,158 370 397 494 -86 944 766
Apr 1, 2020 158,717  

DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, JANUARY 1, 2020 – MARCH 31, 2020

 

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates
COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March. In mid-March, the Canada/U.S. border was closed and non-essential inter-provincial travel restrictions were put in place, restricting both international and inter-provincial migration. The timing of these restrictions resulted in a minor impact in these estimates. It is likely the impact will be more evident in the second quarter 2020 estimates (April 1 to June 30), due to be released in September 2020.
Statistics Canada adjusted some components to take into account the effect of the global pandemic on the population of Canada. A detailed explanation can be found in the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the First Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.
 

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 
Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.
NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.
Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

Published date: 
June 18, 2020
Finance

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