PEI Population Report Quarterly

Le contenu suivant est seulement disponible en anglais.

Population Report, Fourth Quarter 2020

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2016 - 2021

On March 18, 2021 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the fourth quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 159,819 as of January 1, 2021. This represents a yearly increase of 1,190 persons or a 0.8 per cent annual growth rate. This is the third highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut at 1.8 per cent, Yukon at 1.1 per cent, and on par with Alberta at 0.8 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since October 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

 

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (January 1, 2021 compared to January 1, 2020). Population estimates for January 1, 2020 and 2021 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates and level change for the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2020 are also included.

 

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, JANUARY 1, 2020, 2021 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

 

Components of Growth

 

The total increase in PEI’s population from October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 was 72 people.

Natural Increase

There were 331 births and 334 deaths on Prince Edward Island from October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of minus 3.

International Migration

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the last three quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the fourth quarter remained steady compared to the previous quarter but was down 42.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

During the fourth quarter, 258 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 255 the previous quarter. At a rate of 1.6 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, ahead of Manitoba at 1.4 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.1 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 290 persons during the fourth quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 258 international immigrants, 37 non-permanent residents (net), and 2 returning Canadians entering the province, while 5 international emigrants and 2 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12-month period (January 2020 to December 2020) was 1,311. This compares to 3,610 over the previous 12-month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was +37 for the fourth quarter of 2020, following -44 for the third quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 496 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI during the fourth quarter of 2020, while 711 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 215. This compares to a net loss of 152 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were also to Ontario, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the fourth quarter of 2020. 35.3 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

 

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, OCTOBER 1, 2020 TO DECEMBER 31, 2020

 

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH JULY 1 2018 – JANUARY 1 2021

 

 

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates

 

COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March. In mid-March, the Canada/U.S. border was closed and non-essential inter-provincial travel restrictions were put in place, restricting both international and inter-provincial migration. The impact of these restrictions was initially evident in the second quarter 2020 estimates (April 1 to June 30) and continued to have an effect on international and interprovincial migration into the third and fourth quarters.

Nationally during the year, the population increased by 149,461 (+0.4%) to reach 38,048,738 on January 1, 2021, about one-quarter of the growth seen in 2019 (575,038 or +1.5%). This was the lowest annual growth since 1945 (in number) and 1916 (in percent), both periods in which Canada was at war.

In 2020, deaths in Canada surpassed 300,000 (309,893) for the first time in Canadian history. The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported that 15,651 or 5.1% of deaths in 2020 were caused by COVID-19, meaning that the pandemic is estimated to have been the cause of about 1 in 20 deaths in Canada.

The largest impact Covid-19 has had on population growth has been to migration. International migration has accounted for more than three-quarters of the total population growth since 2016, reaching 85.7% in 2019. Following border and travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, this percentage fell to 58.0%. Population increase through international migration in 2020 was over 80% lower than it was in 2019.

Interprovincial migration also slowed significantly during the third quarter. There were 8.8% fewer people moving from one province or territory to another in 2020 than there were a year earlier.
Statistics Canada adjusted some components to take into account the effect of the global pandemic on the population of Canada. A detailed explanation can be found in the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 
Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.
NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.
Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

Date de publication : 
le 19 Mars 2021
Finances

Renseignements généraux

Ministère des Finances
Immeuble Shaw, 2e étage (sud)
95, rue Rochford
C.P. 2000
Charlottetown (Î.-P.-É.) C1A 7N8

Téléphone : 902-368-4040
Télécopieur : 902-368-6575

DeptFinance@gov.pe.ca