PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, Second Quarter 2018

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2013 - 2018

On September 27, 2018 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the second quarter of 2018. The latest population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 153,244 as of July 1, 2018. This represents a yearly increase of 2,678 persons or a 1.8 per cent annual growth rate. This is the highest year over year growth rate among provinces, tied with Ontario, and compares to a rate of 1.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since April 1, 2016 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories were the only jurisdictions that saw year-over-year population decline (July 1, 2018 compared to July 1, 2017). Population estimates for July 1, 2017 and 2018 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2018 are also included.

Components of Growth

Natural Increase

There were 371 births and 273 deaths on Prince Edward Island from April 1, 2018 to June 30, 2018, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of 98.

International Migration

International immigration increased by 7.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter, however down 19.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2017. During the second quarter, 525 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 489 the previous quarter. At a rate of 3.4 per thousand[1], the province had the second highest quarterly immigration rate in the country. The immigration rate for Canada was 2.4 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 985 persons during the second quarter of 2018. This consisted of the 525 international immigrants, 10 returning Canadians, and 483 non-permanent residents (net) entering the province, while 24 international emigrants and 9 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the last 12 month period (July 2017 to June 2018) was 2,867. This compares to 2,899 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)[2] was 483 for second quarter 2018, following 100 for the first quarter. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 1,730 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the second quarter of 2018, while 1,578 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial gain of 152 persons. This compares to a net gain of 414 persons over the same period in 2017. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Nova Scotia and Alberta. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia. PEI, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, and Nunavut all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the second quarter of 2018. 33.9 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, APRIL 1, 2018 TO JUNE 30, 2018

Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from October 1, 2015 to April 1, 2018 can be seen in table 4.

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH OCTOBER 1 2015 – APRIL 1 2018

DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, APRIL 1, 2018 – JUNE 30, 2018

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Note: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census. Starting with this release, the population estimates for Canada, the provinces and territories have been revised, based on 2016 Census population counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves. Population estimates for the third quarter of 2018 for the total population will be released on December 20, 2018. Exceptionally this year, annual demographic estimates (from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018) for the population by sex and age group will be released on December 13, 2018.

 

Source: Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)
Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by PEI Statistics Bureau

 

 

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[1] Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.

[2] NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.