PEI Population Report Quarterly

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Population Report, Second Quarter 2020

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2020

On September 29, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the second quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 159,625 as of July 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 2,363 persons or a 1.5 per cent annual growth rate. This is the second highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, with Nunavut at 1.9 percent. This compares to a rate of 1.1 per cent for Canada as a whole. 

The quarterly estimates since April 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1. 

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

  Canada Prince Edward Island
Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%)
Apr. 1, 2018 36,898,490 0.3 152,039 0.3
Jul. 1, 2018 37,065,178 0.5 153,396 0.9
Oct. 1, 2018 37,249,240 0.5 155,129 1.1
Jan. 1, 2019 37,324,239 0.2 155,244 0.1
Apr. 1, 2019 37,417,155 0.2 155,833 0.4
Jul. 1, 2019 37,593,384 0.5 157,262 0.9
Oct. 1, 2019 37,802,043 0.6 158,334 0.7
Jan. 1, 2020 37,899,277 0.3 158,629 0.2
Apr. 1, 2020 37,979,854 0.2 159,249 0.4
Jul. 1, 2020 38,005,238 0.1 159,625 0.2

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (July 1, 2020 compared to July 1, 2019). Population estimates for July 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2020 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, JULY 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

  Jul 1, 2019 Jul 1, 2020 Growth Level
CAN 37,593,384 38,005,238 1.1% 411,854
NL 523,476 522,103 -0.3% -1,373
PEI 157,262 159,625 1.5% 2,363
NS 969,747 979,351 1.0% 9,604
NB 776,868 781,476 0.6% 4,608
QC 8,501,703 8,574,571 0.9% 72,868
ON 14,544,718 14,734,014 1.3% 189,296
MB 1,369,540 1,379,263 0.7% 9,723
SK 1,172,302 1,178,681 0.5% 6,379
AB 4,361,694 4,421,876 1.4% 60,182
BC 5,090,955 5,147,712 1.1% 56,757
YK 41,477 42,052 1.4% 575
NWT 45,028 45,161 0.3% 133
NU 38,614 39,353 1.9% 739

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2020 was 376 people.

Natural Increase

There were 340 births and 351 deaths on Prince Edward Island from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of -11. 

International Migration

International immigration decreased by 42.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020 and was down 52.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. This was due to restrictions being put in place to enter the province during the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the second quarter, 286 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 494 the previous quarter. At a rate of 1.8 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country. The immigration rate for Canada was 0.9 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 387 persons during the second quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 286 international immigrants and 101 non-permanent residents (net) entering the province. There were no international emigrants, temporarily abroad Canadians, or returning Canadians during the second quarter due to the pandemic restrictions. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the last 12 month period (July 2019 to June 2020) was 2,839. This compares to 3,285 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was 101 for the second quarter of 2020, following -67 for the first quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.
 

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 1,274 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the second quarter of 2020, while 1,274 people also left the province for other areas of Canada, for net zero interprovincial gain. This compares to a net gain of 419 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Nova Scotia and Alberta. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Yukon, and Nunavut all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the second quarter of 2020. 32.0 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, APRIL 1, 2020 TO JUNE 30, 2020

  DESTINATION
ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
N.L. 0 31 378 189 192 692 21 25 617 165 18 15 56
P.E.I. 17 0 171 162 125 567 33 24 62 107 0 0 6
N.S. 240 255 0 578 356 1,355 49 100 598 484 19 50 75
N.B. 97 124 664 0 541 904 38 17 599 308 0 17 7
Que. 34 132 227 538 0 5,267 131 134 677 1,561 29 26 65
Ont. 684 431 1,996 1,128 4,947 0 1,216 1,090 4,829 6,583 104 71 301
Man. 4 43 151 61 195 1,655 0 539 1,394 1,238 0 10 15
Sask. 74 4 119 73 137 1,892 518 0 3,009 1,507 46 14 12
Alta. 472 163 990 661 810 5,370 684 1,766 0 9,302 121 204 88
B.C. 226 88 694 223 915 3,836 746 798 5,716 0 226 85 68
Y.T. 0 0 46 7 42 91 9 8 128 192 0 7 0
N.W.T. 0 3 23 6 15 151 8 30 230 97 19 0 44
Nvt. 30 0 143 0 39 165 15 0 39 17 0 51 0
N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
IN 1,878 1,274 5,602 3,626 8,314 21,945 3,468 4,531 17,898 21,561 582 550 737
OUT 2,399 1,274 4,159 3,316 8,821 23,380 5,305 7,405 20,631 13,621 530 626 499
NET -521 0 1,443 310 -507 -1,435 -1,837 -2,874 -2,733 7,940 52 -76 238

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH JANUARY 1 2018 – JULY 1 2020

Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths (+) Immigrants (+) Other International* (+) Interprovincial In-Migration (-) Interprovincial Out-Migration
Jan 1, 2018 151,516 290 381 489 131 689 695
Apr 1, 2018 152,039 341 340 525 423 1,624 1,216
Jul 1, 2018 153,396 355 313 685 919 971 884
Oct 1, 2018 155,129 328 335 437 -338 533 510
Jan 1, 2019 155,244 299 392 544 5 793 660
Apr 1, 2019 155,833 326 349 601 432 1,510 1,091
Jul 1, 2019 157,262 378 323 855 706 604 1,148
Oct 1, 2019 158,334 323 343 447 20 726 878
Jan 1, 2020 158,629 312 350 494 -70 955 721
Apr 1, 2020 159,249 340 351 286 101 1,274 1,274
Jul 1, 2020 159,625  

 

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates

COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March. In mid-March, the Canada/U.S. border was closed and non-essential inter-provincial travel restrictions were put in place, restricting both international and inter-provincial migration. The impact of these restrictions was evident in these second quarter 2020 estimates (April 1 to June 30).
Statistics Canada adjusted some components to take into account the effect of the global pandemic on the population of Canada. A detailed explanation can be found in the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 
Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.
NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.
Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

Date de publication : 
le 29 Septembre 2020
Finances

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