PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, Fourth Quarter 2018

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2013 - 2018

On March 21, 2019 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the fourth quarter of 2018. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 154,748 as of January 1, 2019. This represents a yearly increase of 3,213 persons or a 2.1 per cent annual growth rate. This is the highest year over year growth rate among provinces, ahead of Ontario at 1.8 percent, and compares to a rate of 1.4 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since October 1, 2016 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

Newfoundland and Labrador and Northwest Territories were the only jurisdictions that saw year-over-year population decline (January 1, 2019 compared to January 1, 2018). Population estimates for January 1, 2018 and 2019 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2018 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, JANUARY 1, 2018, 2019 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

Components of Growth

Natural Increase

There were 334 births and 336 deaths on Prince Edward Island from October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of minus 2.

International Migration

International immigration decreased by 36.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter and down 4.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2017. The fourth quarter tends to be the slowest quarter of the year for international immigration. During the fourth quarter, 437 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 685 the previous quarter. At a rate of 2.8 per thousand[1], the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.9 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 104 persons during the fourth quarter of 2018. This consisted of the 437 international immigrants and 5 returning Canadians, while 306 non-permanent residents (net), 22 international emigrants and 10 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the 2018 calendar year was 3,177. This compares to 3,001 in 2017.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)[2] was -306 for the fourth quarter of 2018, following +880 for the third quarter of 2018. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 594 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the fourth quarter of 2018, while 698 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 104 persons. This compares to a net loss of 213 persons over the same period in 2017. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and Nova Scotia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta, and the Northwest Territories all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the fourth quarter of 2018. 36.0 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, OCTOBER 1, 2018 TO DECEMBER 30, 2018

Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from July 1, 2016 to January 1, 2019 can be seen in table 4.

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH JULY 1 2016 – JANUARY 1 2019

DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, OCTOBER 1, 2018 – DECEMBER 30, 2018

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Note: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 

Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

 

 

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[1] Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.

[2] NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.