PEI Population Report Quarterly

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Population Report, Third Quarter 2020

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2020

On December 17, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the third quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 159,713 as of October 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 1,379 persons or a 0.9 per cent annual growth rate. This is the fourth highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut at 1.7 per cent, Yukon at 1.2 per cent, and Alberta at 1.0 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.5 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since July 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

 

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

  Canada Prince Edward Island
Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%)
Jul. 1, 2018 37,065,178 0.5 153,396 0.9
Oct. 1, 2018 37,249,240 0.5 155,129 1.1
Jan. 1, 2019 37,324,239 0.2 155,244 0.1
Apr. 1, 2019 37,417,155 0.2 155,833 0.4
Jul. 1, 2019 37,593,384 0.5 157,262 0.9
Oct. 1, 2019 37,802,043 0.6 158,334 0.7
Jan. 1, 2020 37,899,277 0.3 158,629 0.2
Apr. 1, 2020 37,979,854 0.2 159,249 0.4
Jul. 1, 2020 38,005,238 0.1 159,625 0.2
Oct. 1, 2020 38,008,005 0.0 159,713 0.1

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (October 1, 2020 compared to October 1, 2019). Population estimates for October 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending September 30, 2020 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, OCTOBER 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

  Oct 1, 2019 Oct 1, 2020 Growth Level
CAN 37,802,043 38,008,005 0.5% 205,962
NL 524,137 520,998 -0.6% -3,139
PEI 158,334 159,713 0.9% 1,379
NS 975,231 979,115 0.4% 3,884
NB 780,154 781,315 0.1% 1,161
QC 8,540,429 8,575,779 0.4% 35,350
ON 14,637,880 14,733,119 0.7% 95,239
MB 1,373,574 1,379,584 0.4% 6,010
SK 1,176,272 1,177,884 0.1% 1,612
AB 4,384,968 4,428,112 1.0% 43,144
BC 5,125,659 5,145,851 0.4% 20,192
YK 41,668 42,176 1.2% 508
NWT 45,100 45,074 -0.1% -26
NU 38,637 39,285 1.7% 648

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from July 1, 2020 to October 1, 2020 was 88 people.

Natural Increase

There were 393 births and 305 deaths on Prince Edward Island from July 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of 88.

International Migration

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the second and third quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the third quarter was down 70.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

During the third quarter, 255 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 286 the previous quarter. At a rate of 1.6 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, along with Manitoba also at 1.6 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.1 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 210 persons during the third quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 255 international immigrants and 4 returning Canadians entering the province, while 3 international emigrant, 44 non-permanent residents (net) and 2 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12 month period (October 2019 to September 2020) was 1,488. This compares to 3,242 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was -44 for the third quarter of 2020, following 101 for the second quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 605 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the third quarter of 2020, while 815 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 210. This compares to a net loss of 544 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and British Columbia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the third quarter of 2020. 36.1 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JULY 1, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2020

  DESTINATION
ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
N.L. 0 23 272 0 63 531 35 12 530 199 0 8 0
P.E.I. 6 0 103 119 41 324 0 0 120 96 6 0 0
N.S. 174 29 0 332 219 996 98 54 450 246 0 18 11
N.B. 40 39 467 0 673 708 28 20 410 155 0 0 0
Que. 33 10 238 427 0 5,010 212 119 947 1,196 0 10 5
Ont. 538 308 1,741 1,035 4,853 0 749 508 3,850 3,737 80 36 48
Man. 0 15 128 37 265 1,390 0 188 1,039 1,061 4 3 10
Sask. 38 8 63 55 144 1,474 316 0 1,913 1,212 8 3 0
Alta. 363 133 525 359 998 3,901 433 1,111 0 5,411 42 114 6
B.C. 102 40 434 141 465 2,868 452 414 3,756 0 40 6 0
Y.T. 0 0 10 0 10 75 0 21 20 97 0 4 0
N.W.T. 5 0 32 50 0 66 10 13 127 35 16 0 23
Nvt. 0 0 85 5 14 103 27 0 41 15 15 43 0
N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
IN 1,299 605 4,098 2,560 7,745 17,446 2,360 2,460 13,203 13,460 211 245 103
OUT 1,673 815 2,627 2,540 8,207 17,483 4,140 5,234 13,396 8,718 237 377 348
NET -374 -210 1,471 20 -462 -37 -1,780 -2,774 -193 4,742 -26 -132 -245

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH APRIL 1 2018 – OCTOBER 1 2020

Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths (+) Immigrants (+) Other International* (+) Interprovincial In-Migration (-) Interprovincial Out-Migration
Apr 1, 2018 152,039 341 340 525 423 1,624 1,216
Jul 1, 2018 153,396 355 313 685 919 971 884
Oct 1, 2018 155,129 328 335 437 -338 533 510
Jan 1, 2019 155,244 299 392 544 5 793 660
Apr 1, 2019 155,833 326 349 601 432 1,510 1,091
Jul 1, 2019 157,262 378 323 855 706 604 1,148
Oct 1, 2019 158,334 323 343 447 20 726 878
Jan 1, 2020 158,629 312 350 494 -70 955 721
Apr 1, 2020 159,249 340 351 286 101 1,274 1,274
Jul 1, 2020 159,625 393 305 255 -45 605 815
Oct 1, 2020 159,713  

 

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates

COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March. In mid-March, the Canada/U.S. border was closed and non-essential inter-provincial travel restrictions were put in place, restricting both international and inter-provincial migration. The impact of these restrictions were evident in the second quarter 2020 estimates (April 1 to June 30) and continued to have an effect on international and interprovincial migration into the third quarter.

Nationally, population growth came to a halt in the third quarter of 2020, increasing by only 2,767 people. This was a lowest quarterly growth seen since comparable national data has been available (January 1946). Six provinces and two territories saw population declines during this period.

Deaths due to Covid-19 had little impact on the total population estimates. Out of the total 69,114 deaths recorded during the third quarter of 2020, 706 were due to Covid-19, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.

The largest impact Covid-19 has had on population growth has been to migration. Net international migration for the third quarter of 2020 was -27,143, only the second quarter this has been negative since 1971. The majority of this loss was due to a loss of 66,000 non-permanent residents, as international students who normally come to Canada during the third quarter were not able to do so due to border restrictions. All of Canada’s population growth during the third quarter of 2020 was due to natural increase.

Interprovincial migration also slowed significantly during the third quarter. 65,795 people moved to a new province during this period, down 21.0% from the same period in 2019 and the fewest number since comparable data has been available (1971).
Statistics Canada adjusted some components to take into account the effect of the global pandemic on the population of Canada. A detailed explanation can be found in the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 
Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.
NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.
Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau

Date de publication : 
le 17 Décembre 2020
Finances

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