PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, Fourth Quarter 2019

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2019

On March 19, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the fourth quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 158,158 as of January 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 3,047 persons or a 2.0 per cent annual growth rate. This is the highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, along with Nunavut also at 2.0 percent. This compares to a rate of 1.6 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since October 1, 2017 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (January 1, 2020 compared to January 1, 2019). Population estimates for January 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2019 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, JANUARY 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from October 1, 2019 to January 1, 2020 was 257 people.

Natural Increase

There were 341 births and 346 deaths on Prince Edward Island from October 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of -5.

International Migration

International immigration decreased by 47.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the third quarter and up 2.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2018. During the fourth quarter, 447 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 855 the previous quarter. This follows recent trends where the fourth quarter has been the slowest for international immigration in recent years. At a rate of 2.8 per thousand , the province had the third highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, behind Manitoba and Saskatchewan which were both at 3.0 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 2.0 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 470 persons during the fourth quarter of 2019. This consisted of the 447 international immigrants, 14 returning Canadians, and 36 non-permanent residents (net) entering the province, while 17 international emigrants and 10 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. The number of net international immigrants coming to PEI over the last 12 month period (January 2019 to December 2019) was 3,595. This compares to 3,210 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was 36 for the fourth quarter of 2019, following 721 for the third quarter of 2019. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 718 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the fourth quarter of 2019, while 926 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 208 persons. This compares to a net loss of 76 persons over the same period in 2018. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and British Columbia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Nunavut all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the fourth quarter of 2019. 33.2 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, OCTOBER 1, 2019 TO DECEMBER 31, 2019

Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from July 1, 2017 to January 1, 2020 can be seen in table 4.

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH JULY 1 2017 – JANUARY 1 2020

DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, OCTOBER 1, 2019 – DECEMBER 31, 2019

 

Related downloads for this release:

PEI Population Report Quarterly PDF (179KB)

Notes: Current population estimates are now based on the 2016 Census.

 

Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates.

NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That  yields the net number of NPR.

Source: Statistics Canada

Table 17-10-0009-01, Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0040-01, International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migrants, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0045-01, Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly (persons)

Table 17-10-0059-01, Estimates of the components of natural increase, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (number)

Prepared by  PEI Statistics Bureau