PEI Population Report Quarterly

Population Report, Third Quarter 2020

DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2015 - 2020

On December 17, 2020 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the third quarter of 2020. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 159,713 as of October 1, 2020. This represents a yearly increase of 1,379 persons or a 0.9 per cent annual growth rate. This is the fourth highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut at 1.7 per cent, Yukon at 1.2 per cent, and Alberta at 1.0 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.5 per cent for Canada as a whole.

The quarterly estimates since July 1, 2018 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1.

TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction that saw year-over-year population decline (October 1, 2020 compared to October 1, 2019). Population estimates for October 1, 2019 and 2020 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates for the twelve-month period ending September 30, 2020 are also included.

TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, OCTOBER 1, 2019, 2020 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

Components of Growth

The total increase in PEI’s population from July 1, 2020 to October 1, 2020 was 88 people.

Natural Increase

There were 393 births and 305 deaths on Prince Edward Island from July 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of 88.

International Migration

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the second and third quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the third quarter was down 70.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

During the third quarter, 255 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 286 the previous quarter. At a rate of 1.6 per thousand , the province had the highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, along with Manitoba also at 1.6 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.1 per thousand.

Net international migration was estimated to be 210 persons during the third quarter of 2020. This consisted of the 255 international immigrants and 4 returning Canadians entering the province, while 3 international emigrant, 44 non-permanent residents (net) and 2 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12 month period (October 2019 to September 2020) was 1,488. This compares to 3,242 over the previous 12 month period.

Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)  was -44 for the third quarter of 2020, following 101 for the second quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.

Inter-provincial Migration

A total of 605 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI in the third quarter of 2020, while 815 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial loss of 210. This compares to a net loss of 544 persons over the same period in 2019. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter-provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and British Columbia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were to Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia all saw positive net interprovincial migration over the third quarter of 2020. 36.1 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario.

TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JULY 1, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2020

TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH APRIL 1 2018 – OCTOBER 1 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates